Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Tue Jun 23 18:55:36 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Looking at that exact question, here it seems our validated 2016 voters in Arizona are R+13 by party reg, while 2016 voters on the file are R+6. Either way, the sample winds up at R+2 or 3 or whatever, but our voters appear to be more R and nonvoters too D. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

IDK. It was true to some extent in Oct. as well (Trump 45, Clinton 37 in AZ). Keep that the poll is not designed to be representative of the 2016 electorate. For ex: we have the right reg Dems/Reps, but our 2016 voters could be too R and nonvoters too D https://t.co/3tvDyL4ftR — PolitiTweet.org

@Nate_Cohn Can you comment on why the AZ sample is much more pro-Trump-2016 than the actual vote? Is this accounted for in some way?

Posted June 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kabir_here self report — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 23, 2020 Hibernated