Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 29, 2020

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Tue May 19 22:52:20 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@A_agadjanian and iirc you won't pick up almost all the changes you really care about. you're pretty dependent on the 'last presidential election' fixed effect in a predictive setting, and you don't have nearly enough n to figure out that IN will shift 20 pts to Obama but not OH — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@A_agadjanian i've done something like it going back to '04, though unpublished. regularization creates some persistent biases in mrp, at least using the covariates available from RDD surveys. state subsamples don't really get big enough unless you get dozens of national polls — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cwarshaw @A_agadjanian not the prettiest slide i ever made (filling in for mr. enten dropping out of something at the last minute, IIRC!) but here's a '16 effort that tried to synthesize a regression based on high-quality state polling and MRP w national RDD https://t.co/KBPkssEjZu — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 19, 2020 Hibernated