Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 17, 2020

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Wed Feb 05 20:26:01 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The entrance poll tells a different story, I know, but those are pretty imprecise instruments for measuring the composition of the electorate. For one, it's a poll of 1600 people. Margin of error? Yes, it applies. And it's even greater than usual because it's a cluster sample — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I should emphasize one caveat: I'm measuring change in turnout by raw numbers, not with a denominator of population or registered Democrats (I do not have denominators for 2016 by precinct) It is conceivable, for ex., that pop growth in suburbs could exacerbate this pattern a bit — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's just a sample of precincts. Say, 30 to 50 (IDK). So, if in 2020 there's an extra college campus site in the sample precincts, that on its own could move the youth share of the electorate. They're just not designed for precise measurement here — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 5, 2020 Hibernated