Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 17, 2020

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Wed Feb 05 20:23:28 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I should emphasize one caveat: I'm measuring change in turnout by raw numbers, not with a denominator of population or registered Democrats (I do not have denominators for 2016 by precinct) It is conceivable, for ex., that pop growth in suburbs could exacerbate this pattern a bit — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Similarly, turnout tended to increase more in Buttigieg precincts / those where Sanders struggled (well-educated, suburban) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The entrance poll tells a different story, I know, but those are pretty imprecise instruments for measuring the composition of the electorate. For one, it's a poll of 1600 people. Margin of error? Yes, it applies. And it's even greater than usual because it's a cluster sample — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 5, 2020 Hibernated