Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 17, 2020

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Wed Feb 05 17:14:56 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If we change our likely voter screen to the same as the Selzer poll (Almost certain, very likely as 100%; all else as zero), our result is Bernie 24.7, Buttigieg 18.9, Warren 15.2, Biden 16, which brings our average error down to 1.4, the exact same as the Selzer poll — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And it does seem that every firm did better on their last poll than their first, so there is a real advantage to going last. Voters who decided in the last few days appeared to bad for Sanders, per entrance polls. https://t.co/ftd3D8J263 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The tightest screen--only Almost certain--would have been most accurate, with an average error of 1.2: Sanders 25.6, Buttigieg 20.2, Warren/Biden 15.0. Could be noise though, as we fall to N=323 here — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 5, 2020 Hibernated