Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 22, 2020

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Wed Dec 18 14:21:45 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A final possibility, and one that maybe you should root for, is that it's basically a coincidence--we have only a small number of diverse, idiosyncratic online pollsters. They have their own patterns, and can't be clumped like the live RDD polls, which are fundamentally similar. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 18, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another possibility is a mode effect, where people respond differently online. But it wouldn't really explain a lack of variance, just bias. It made more sense in '17, though even then it was unproven and the idea that it flipped is tough to stomach. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 18, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'd note, FWIW, that the Civiqs tracker, which isn't included here as it is not in the FiveThirtyEight database, does seem to track more with the live interview polls. Am I sure that if we had 5 more big, online pollsters that this pattern would still hold? No, not really — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 18, 2019 Hibernated