Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 6, 2020

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Mon Nov 04 12:05:48 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

2) Unlike national polls, we should Trump holding up with white, working class voters. Take the Fox poll v. Biden yesterday : White, no degree. Fox: 37/50, Upshot: 34/58 White, college. Fox: 50/42, Upshot: 50/41 Hispanic. Fox: 60/28, Upshot: 63/29 Black. Fox: 89/6, Upshot: 82/8 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 4, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The main difference between our polls and recent national polls, to me, stems from two things. 1) The EC-battleground gap, which was 4 points in '16 and could easily grow in '20, esp among RVs. This is basically what we thought the result should look like, back in July https://t.co/LfnEI45ElY — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 4, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Obviously, white working class voters are a group pollsters have struggled with in recent years, especially in state polls. We also do a lot that can help us here that others don't, like strata on party x region, weighting on education, and response rate adjustment on turnout — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 4, 2019 Hibernated