Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 6, 2020

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Mon Nov 04 12:03:40 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The main difference between our polls and recent national polls, to me, stems from two things. 1) The EC-battleground gap, which was 4 points in '16 and could easily grow in '20, esp among RVs. This is basically what we thought the result should look like, back in July https://t.co/LfnEI45ElY — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 4, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Crosstabs and methodology here. Unlike most state polls, we're weighted by education Unlike most national polls, we're weighted (and stratified for that matter) on party registration, so we have the right number of reg Dems/reg GOP in each state https://t.co/RzjxBLQtWF — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 4, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

2) Unlike national polls, we should Trump holding up with white, working class voters. Take the Fox poll v. Biden yesterday : White, no degree. Fox: 37/50, Upshot: 34/58 White, college. Fox: 50/42, Upshot: 50/41 Hispanic. Fox: 60/28, Upshot: 63/29 Black. Fox: 89/6, Upshot: 82/8 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 4, 2019 Hibernated