Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 28, 2020

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Wed Sep 18 16:14:17 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The statewide margin was really small: Trump +23k, or +.7%. And that tiny margin means that a 2012-repeat in Mil. (though not 08/04) would have *barely* won it for Clinton. But OTOH, I just don't see how you can look at that and say that Mil. was the central issue here for Dems — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 18, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Just put this in an email and thought it was worth sharing on Twitter too. Here's the change in Dem margin between 2012 and 2016 in Wisc., by region: Milwaukee City: -28k (171k --> 143k) Mil. burbs: +31k (-126k --> -95k) Dane: +14k (132k --> 146k) Rest: -253k (35k --> -218k) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 18, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As an aside, our voter file data from L2 thinks the black share of the electorate in Wisc. was lower in '18 than in '16 (though quite similar, at 2.8 and 2.9% of the vote). These modeled estimates are generally low, so I'd guess we're talking more like ~4% in reality — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 18, 2019 Hibernated