Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 28, 2020

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Fri Jul 19 19:38:56 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NateSilver538 If you don't agree, I'd be happy to hear evidence to the contrary. I think I've put forward a lot. And I do think trying to pin-point it matters, not necessarily for predicting the race but making sense of it and perhaps changing it, as Democrats mull their nominee — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The US House vote in AZ/WI was D+2, after imputing uncontested races. The US House vote nationally was D+7. It's there too, though the president's approval rating is probably lower both nationally and in Wisconsin, per the polls https://t.co/NFlxtxY0YD — PolitiTweet.org

The fact that the results of people *actually voting* in the 2018 midterms implies a rather different takeaway than… https://t.co/fvyt9ZjNqJ

Posted July 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NateSilver538 But just about all of them--and certainly the one used here--are better than giving the Democrats 100% of the vote in one-eight of the state. And we also have estimates that account for incumbency, and that nudges things a little bit--to D+2.5 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2019 Hibernated