Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 3, 2023

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Wed Mar 08 18:46:17 +0000 2023

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@semaforben The big NYT story on this weekend made it sound like Fox/AP had some sort of superior model. That's total BS. The Times's own data team rejected the Fox/AP call and were right to do so because Fox/AP assumptions were way, way off; they expected Biden to win by 7+ points. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 8, 2023

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@semaforben I think that's probably missing the forest for the trees. It's colloquial language; the rest of his email just seems to be about *removing it from Biden's column*. But mostly, the big sweeping media narratives about this story have missed the fact that Fox/AP did screw up in AZ. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 8, 2023

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's hard to overstate how bad it would have been in terms of undermining trust in the media and in data science, and how much fuel it would have given to election denialism, if Trump had won AZ after the premature Fox call, something he came within 0.3% (~10000 votes) of doing. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 8, 2023