Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 3, 2023

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Wed Mar 08 18:56:42 +0000 2023

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's hard to overstate how bad it would have been in terms of undermining trust in the media and in data science, and how much fuel it would have given to election denialism, if Trump had won AZ after the premature Fox call, something he came within 0.3% (~10000 votes) of doing. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 8, 2023

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@semaforben The big NYT story on this weekend made it sound like Fox/AP had some sort of superior model. That's total BS. The Times's own data team rejected the Fox/AP call and were right to do so because Fox/AP assumptions were way, way off; they expected Biden to win by 7+ points. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 8, 2023

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As a bit of a compliment to our on analysis, here's an independent evaluation of 538 midterm forecasts vs. prediction markets. Prediction markets got more caught up in the red wave narrative and were less accurate this time around. https://t.co/WscipwEfRp — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 8, 2023