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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 7, 2022

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Sat Nov 05 19:48:49 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Well, that's one of the whole purposes of 538. Our pollster ratings track accuracy and improve pollster incentives to put out accurate numbers rather than just influencing the discourse. If Trafalgar et al have a bad night, that will lower their rating going forward. — PolitiTweet.org

Jonathan Alter @jonathanalter

Strong incentives? How about obvious incentives going back to Lou Harris for partisan pollsters to show their team… https://t.co/MIz9kzk0Gf

Posted Nov. 5, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Part of the reason for building a model and polling averages with **hard and fast, deliberately inflexible rules** is because I don't want to have to make decisions in the heat of the moment when the chance of motivated reasoning is high. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 5, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Life is a lot easier even you can just stick to vague pronoucements and innuendo instead of devoting 1000s of hours to developing a rigorous process that people can test against actual results. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 5, 2022