Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 6, 2022

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Sat Nov 05 18:47:17 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Part of the reason for building a model and polling averages with **hard and fast, deliberately inflexible rules** is because I don't want to have to make decisions in the heat of the moment when the chance of motivated reasoning is high. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 5, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I get that we all engage in motivated reasoning, trust me I do it too, but the propensity for motivated reasoning when looking at polling and other data is **very** high the week or so before an election. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 5, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Well, that's one of the whole purposes of 538. Our pollster ratings track accuracy and improve pollster incentives to put out accurate numbers rather than just influencing the discourse. If Trafalgar et al have a bad night, that will lower their rating going forward. — PolitiTweet.org

Strong incentives? How about obvious incentives going back to Lou Harris for partisan pollsters to show their team… https://t.co/MIz9kzk0Gf

Posted Nov. 5, 2022