Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 6, 2022

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Sat Nov 05 18:07:21 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@yeselson @LPDonovan @ThePlumLineGS Empirically the most accurate strategy is giving polls a bonus (a higher weight in our average) if they join a transparency initiative but not throwing them out if they don't, so that's what we do. Partisan polls also get a lower weight and a bigger house effect adjustment. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 5, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Political insiders tend not to have well-trained intuitions for forecasting, in part because elections happen infrequently. And they tend to be quite conformist relative to their social circles. They are usually regurgitating vibes more than revealing any proprietary knowledge. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 5, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Chris_arnade Yeah and in some ways, the more of a political insider you are, the less you tend to think like a rank-and-file voter. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 5, 2022