Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 6, 2022

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Sat Nov 05 18:01:51 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Political insiders tend not to have well-trained intuitions for forecasting, in part because elections happen infrequently. And they tend to be quite conformist relative to their social circles. They are usually regurgitating vibes more than revealing any proprietary knowledge. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 5, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, people forget that insider buzz about the race is not only usually pretty worthless but in the past has often been a contrarian indicator, e.g. you would have made money by betting on the opposite of what the insiders think. https://t.co/tyIZ8crzGP — PolitiTweet.org

I've said I expect Republicans to have a pretty decent night overall, so this isn't me forecasting a blue wave or e… https://t.co/QeDTtLMr2R

Posted Nov. 5, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@yeselson @LPDonovan @ThePlumLineGS Empirically the most accurate strategy is giving polls a bonus (a higher weight in our average) if they join a transparency initiative but not throwing them out if they don't, so that's what we do. Partisan polls also get a lower weight and a bigger house effect adjustment. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 5, 2022