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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 12, 2022

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Thu Oct 20 23:57:48 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias What your scenario tells us is that conditional on there not being a systematic error *favoring* Democrats, Ds are underdogs to keep the Senate. Which, I agree. Some of their 59% chance comes from the probability of a systematic pro-R polling bias or a late momentum shift to Ds. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 20, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias That's not quite right because you're not just taking states off the map, you're also informing the model's prior about other states. For example also if you give CO and WA to Ds, it increases their probability quite a bit it removes some "crazy" scenarios from the table. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 20, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanTrende We need to grandfather in @RalstonReports by statute like Major League Baseball once did for spitball pitchers. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 21, 2022