Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 3, 2022

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Wed Dec 08 18:06:16 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So this is a case where hard, revealed-preference data, e.g. on travel or restaurant bookings, probably ought to take precedence over people's purported level of caution in surveys. Most people are back to their old routines. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 8, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Why? 1) People who are staying home b/c of COVID easier to reach 2) COVID concern tends to be higher among high-edu, high-news consuming, high-social-trust Americans, who are more likely to respond to polls 3) Maybe some social desirability bias (people exaggerate their caution) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 8, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

...Or you can look at something like the Virginia gubernatorial election, where COVID-related school closures played out in a more negative way for Democrats than you might have expected from surveys. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 8, 2021