Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 3, 2022

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Wed Dec 08 18:01:56 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Why? 1) People who are staying home b/c of COVID easier to reach 2) COVID concern tends to be higher among high-edu, high-news consuming, high-social-trust Americans, who are more likely to respond to polls 3) Maybe some social desirability bias (people exaggerate their caution) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 8, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not great that surveys are overestimating vaccine uptake (though, I'd note that the CDC's data has some issues too). Both on vaccines and other COVID precautions, there are likely some fairly big biases in surveys toward people who are more conscientious/careful about COVID. — PolitiTweet.org

Out in @Nature today: Two large surveys were biased, with too much certainty on the wrong estimate, illustrating Me… https://t.co/4pe31m8lWr

Posted Dec. 8, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So this is a case where hard, revealed-preference data, e.g. on travel or restaurant bookings, probably ought to take precedence over people's purported level of caution in surveys. Most people are back to their old routines. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 8, 2021