Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 10, 2021

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Thu Sep 02 13:32:15 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Election predictions are generally fairly useless more than say 3-6 months in advance, but that's probably especially true for next year's midterms. I just don't think we a great idea what the news cycle and broader political environment will look like a year from now. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

TBH, I think there's a pretty good argument for *not looking at raw case numbers at all*. For a sense of "how COVID is going", look at the positive test rate as your leading indicator, and hospitalizations/deaths as your somewhat lagging (but ultimately what matters) indicator. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The chief reason for that is COVID. The situation will *probably* be better in Nov. 2022 than it is now, and perhaps it will much better. But, I don't think anyone would want to be super confident about any of that. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2021