Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 10, 2021

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Thu Sep 02 13:17:40 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

TBH, I think there's a pretty good argument for *not looking at raw case numbers at all*. For a sense of "how COVID is going", look at the positive test rate as your leading indicator, and hospitalizations/deaths as your somewhat lagging (but ultimately what matters) indicator. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Moreover, Israel has massively ramped its testing during the Delta surge, whereas in the US it has only increased modestly. So that's going to make the surge look superficially a lot worse than if it were doing US levels of testing. https://t.co/9QLyrtoaHO https://t.co/z1GSDixLT4 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Election predictions are generally fairly useless more than say 3-6 months in advance, but that's probably especially true for next year's midterms. I just don't think we a great idea what the news cycle and broader political environment will look like a year from now. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2021