Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 30, 2021

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Fri May 28 17:48:15 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2) Swing voters tend to elect the out-party in midterms to create a balance of power. If they're convinced that the GOP will not wield its power responsibly or will even use control of Congress to permanently seize power, that calculation changes. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 28, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are a few mechanisms here: 1) Parties usually course-correct after defeats and the GOP is doing the very opposite. It's not clear how well empirical precedents about mean-reversion during the midterms holds up under these conditions. — PolitiTweet.org

@NateSilver538 explain?

Posted May 28, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

3) Even if swing voters don't care, Democratic base voters are likely to be very motivated by the claim that Democrats must keep control of Congress to prevent the presidency from being stolen in 2024. This may reduce the typical "enthusiasm gap" in midterm voting. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 28, 2021