Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 29, 2021

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Fri May 28 17:46:08 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are a few mechanisms here: 1) Parties usually course-correct after defeats and the GOP is doing the very opposite. It's not clear how well empirical precedents about mean-reversion during the midterms holds up under these conditions. — PolitiTweet.org

@NateSilver538 explain?

Posted May 28, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I still think there's a little bit of tension between the notion —which I largely agree with—that the current GOP represents an unprecedented (at least in modern American history) threat to democracy and the CW that Democrats will surely suffer the usual midterm penalty in '22. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 28, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2) Swing voters tend to elect the out-party in midterms to create a balance of power. If they're convinced that the GOP will not wield its power responsibly or will even use control of Congress to permanently seize power, that calculation changes. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 28, 2021