Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated No

Last Checked April 28, 2021

Created

Tue Apr 13 13:53:33 +0000 2021

Likes

433

Retweets

Source

Twitter for Android

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Now of course there's a lot of stuff we haven't considered. But it cuts in both directions. The incidence of blood clot deaths may be higher that indicated so far given we're not systematically monitoring for them. OTOH, we also have to consider the base rates in the population. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 13, 2021

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I disagree. Say there's a 1 in 100 chance someone acquires COVID because of a delayed vaccine (maybe conservative in the US where spread is still quite high) and a 1 in 150 chance they die from it. That's a 1 in 15,000 chance vs. 1 blood clot death in 7,000,000 doses so far. — PolitiTweet.org

I just don’t get it, @NateSilver538. I admire your work on polling and you clearly appreciate the complexity there.… https://t.co/x3zchbKNeJ

Posted April 13, 2021

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We also have to consider that the person who gets COVID because of a delayed vaccine will pass her case along to an average of 1 other person given where Rt is in the US right now. So the death rate is actually twice as high as I indicated above. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 13, 2021