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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 28, 2021

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Tue Apr 13 13:53:33 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I disagree. Say there's a 1 in 100 chance someone acquires COVID because of a delayed vaccine (maybe conservative in the US where spread is still quite high) and a 1 in 150 chance they die from it. That's a 1 in 15,000 chance vs. 1 blood clot death in 7,000,000 doses so far. — PolitiTweet.org

Kai Kupferschmidt @kakape

I just don’t get it, @NateSilver538. I admire your work on polling and you clearly appreciate the complexity there.… https://t.co/x3zchbKNeJ

Posted April 13, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If out of the blue one morning Gov. Newsom was like "Shark attacks are extremely rare, but out of an abundance of caution, we're closing every beach in California until we investigate more", that's not likely to get more people to go out to the beach, even once beaches reopen. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 13, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Now of course there's a lot of stuff we haven't considered. But it cuts in both directions. The incidence of blood clot deaths may be higher that indicated so far given we're not systematically monitoring for them. OTOH, we also have to consider the base rates in the population. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 13, 2021