Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 28, 2021

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Tue Apr 13 13:53:34 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We also have to consider that the person who gets COVID because of a delayed vaccine will pass her case along to an average of 1 other person given where Rt is in the US right now. So the death rate is actually twice as high as I indicated above. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 13, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Now of course there's a lot of stuff we haven't considered. But it cuts in both directions. The incidence of blood clot deaths may be higher that indicated so far given we're not systematically monitoring for them. OTOH, we also have to consider the base rates in the population. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 13, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So I don't think it's a particularly close decision. Even if blood clot deaths were 10-fold higher than observed so far, which is certainly possible, it wouldn't be a close decision. And that's before considering the knock-off effects on contributing to vaccine hesitancy. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 13, 2021