Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 12, 2021

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Thu Mar 25 14:24:23 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But here's the problem that's much harder to excuse. The polls had a big Democratic bias (bias meant in a statistical sense). Republicans beat their polls by 4.8 points on average! The bias was actually larger in Congressional & gubernatorial races than for Trump (4.2 points). https://t.co/tKRhN5TDLM — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Is that the best way to evaluate polls? No. It's better to look at the margins. The D wins came by far closer margins than polls projected. Still, the media tends to judge polls by winners and losers so the 💩 the polls got was a tad inconsistent with how they're often evaluated. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That's the biggest bias in either direction in the cycles our pollster ratings cover (since 1998). It's likely that some earlier years, certainly 1980 and probably 1994, would have had a bigger bias if you extended back that far. So not unprecedented. But still ... not ... good. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021