Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 12, 2021

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Thu Mar 25 14:25:32 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That's the biggest bias in either direction in the cycles our pollster ratings cover (since 1998). It's likely that some earlier years, certainly 1980 and probably 1994, would have had a bigger bias if you extended back that far. So not unprecedented. But still ... not ... good. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But here's the problem that's much harder to excuse. The polls had a big Democratic bias (bias meant in a statistical sense). Republicans beat their polls by 4.8 points on average! The bias was actually larger in Congressional & gubernatorial races than for Trump (4.2 points). https://t.co/tKRhN5TDLM — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't think we should necessarily expect that polls will continue to have a Republican bias. Historically, the direction of bias is not very predicable as pollsters adjust, adapt, etc. But I do think we may continue to see systematic polling errors in BOTH directions. https://t.co/HNDlpmHqb8 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021 Deleted Just a Typo