Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated No

Last Checked April 12, 2021

Created

Thu Mar 25 14:22:23 +0000 2021

Likes

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Is that the best way to evaluate polls? No. It's better to look at the margins. The D wins came by far closer margins than polls projected. Still, the media tends to judge polls by winners and losers so the 💩 the polls got was a tad inconsistent with how they're often evaluated. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The polls actually did pretty well in "calling" races correctly, as 79% of polls identified the right winner, which is the same as the historical average. Polls got 48 of 50 presidential states right, correctly identified that Democrats would win Congress, etc. https://t.co/C7vHo8Klvj — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But here's the problem that's much harder to excuse. The polls had a big Democratic bias (bias meant in a statistical sense). Republicans beat their polls by 4.8 points on average! The bias was actually larger in Congressional & gubernatorial races than for Trump (4.2 points). https://t.co/tKRhN5TDLM — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021