Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 12, 2021

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Thu Mar 25 14:18:19 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The polls actually did pretty well in "calling" races correctly, as 79% of polls identified the right winner, which is the same as the historical average. Polls got 48 of 50 presidential states right, correctly identified that Democrats would win Congress, etc. https://t.co/C7vHo8Klvj — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Based on average error, the 2019-20 cycle featured decidedly mediocre polling: an average error of 6.3 points. That's the 3rd worst out of 12 cycles we've tracked. At the same time, as you can see, it's not an outlier exactly, either. It was well within the range of "normal". https://t.co/qZmcBwTP9g — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Is that the best way to evaluate polls? No. It's better to look at the margins. The D wins came by far closer margins than polls projected. Still, the media tends to judge polls by winners and losers so the 💩 the polls got was a tad inconsistent with how they're often evaluated. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021