Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 6, 2021

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Thu Dec 17 20:48:48 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

How do we weigh the RAPTOR component vs. the Elo component? It depends on how much continuity there has been in a team's lineup. If a team has high continuity, then team performance really does tend to be more robust so Elo may get 50% or more of the weight. 15/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 17, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Another change is that a team's rating will now reflect a combination of its RAPTOR rating and its Elo rating. Elo, if you'll remember, is a purely TEAM-BASED measure, and it tends to put more emphasis on recent games. 14/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 17, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Conversely, if there's a lot of turnover in the lineup because of injuries, trades, etc., looking at past team performance may not tell you very much. Instead, the projections will gravitate very heavily (in some cases 95%+) toward RAPTOR. 16/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 17, 2020