Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 6, 2021

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Thu Dec 17 20:48:47 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One issue with RAPTOR and other +/- systems is they can sometimes misallocate credit between teammates. So e.g. maybe they had Harden too high and Russell Westbrook too low. If you're forecasting how they'll do now that they're on separate teams, that could be a problem. 10/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 17, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Additionally, RAPTOR includes an important property that PREDATOR does not. Basically, it works backward by starting with the team's performance and forcing the player ratings to sum up to the team rating. In PREDATOR this assumption is relaxed. 9/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 17, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But if you're forecasting how the Rockets are going to do when both Harden + Russ are still in the lineup, that's less of a problem. Under RAPTOR, the errors literally cancel out. Thus, RAPTOR itself is a TEAM-BASED rating in certain respects, whereas PREDATOR isn't. 11/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 17, 2020