Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 20, 2020

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Tue Nov 10 16:16:32 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Polls could be 2x or 3x worse and they'd still be better than hot takes. Hot takes/conventional wisdom are very bad and often literally have negative predictive accuracy (i.e. polls often miss in the opposite direction from what they expect). https://t.co/EFqBQPTpEz https://t.co/fpiAddgqKB — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 10, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes There's not actually much evidence that polls are becoming less accurate. They had perhaps their best year ever in 2018. 2016 and 2020 polling errors were slightly worse than average but within a fairly normal range. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 10, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You can refresh various COVID tracking dashboards 20 times a day. Warning: Not a lot of comforting news there. — PolitiTweet.org

Really need something to fill the interstices of my thoughts now that I don't have polling averages to check every… https://t.co/Tj8nzjQLh0

Posted Nov. 10, 2020