Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 20, 2020

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Tue Nov 10 16:06:10 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes There's not actually much evidence that polls are becoming less accurate. They had perhaps their best year ever in 2018. 2016 and 2020 polling errors were slightly worse than average but within a fairly normal range. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 10, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If polls are becoming less accurate—it's not clear they are but leave that aside for a moment—people basically just need to accept that there's more uncertainty. But instead what will happen is that people will just be more confident in their dubious narratives and hot takes. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 10, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Polls could be 2x or 3x worse and they'd still be better than hot takes. Hot takes/conventional wisdom are very bad and often literally have negative predictive accuracy (i.e. polls often miss in the opposite direction from what they expect). https://t.co/EFqBQPTpEz https://t.co/fpiAddgqKB — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 10, 2020