Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 19, 2020

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Mon Nov 09 18:18:40 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

However, we've used long-run rather than short-run data to calibrate the model precisely because we didn't think the uncannily good performance of polls over 2004-2012 or thereabouts was necessarily sustainable given declining response rates to polls, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 9, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, this is interesting. Polls have generally been more accurate over the period that 538 has made forecasts (2008-2018) than they have been over the long run. So there have been somewhat fewer upsets than the model expected based on the long-term data it was trained on. — PolitiTweet.org

@NateSilver538 Interesting. It does look, if anything, like the politics predictions undersell the certainty. (Wh… https://t.co/i1k8w1D8t7

Posted Nov. 9, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One slightly unrelated point, but the fact that Biden could lose any 2 states from among the GA/WI/AZ/PA group and still win the election makes his win a bit more robust (and a bit less "close") than if he had to sweep those exact states. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 9, 2020