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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 19, 2020

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Mon Nov 09 18:16:30 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, this is interesting. Polls have generally been more accurate over the period that 538 has made forecasts (2008-2018) than they have been over the long run. So there have been somewhat fewer upsets than the model expected based on the long-term data it was trained on. — PolitiTweet.org

Wes Pegden @WesPegden

@NateSilver538 Interesting. It does look, if anything, like the politics predictions undersell the certainty. (Wh… https://t.co/i1k8w1D8t7

Posted Nov. 9, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So I'm admittedly kind of prickly about criticism after elections that both our model and our broader reporting handled quite robustly, which only happened because we put so much work into them. Especially given that the topline outcome + 48/50 states were "called" correctly. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 9, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

However, we've used long-run rather than short-run data to calibrate the model precisely because we didn't think the uncannily good performance of polls over 2004-2012 or thereabouts was necessarily sustainable given declining response rates to polls, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 9, 2020