Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 19, 2020

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Mon Nov 09 18:27:51 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One slightly unrelated point, but the fact that Biden could lose any 2 states from among the GA/WI/AZ/PA group and still win the election makes his win a bit more robust (and a bit less "close") than if he had to sweep those exact states. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 9, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

However, we've used long-run rather than short-run data to calibrate the model precisely because we didn't think the uncannily good performance of polls over 2004-2012 or thereabouts was necessarily sustainable given declining response rates to polls, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 9, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Especially given that those states are in different parts of the country (South/Midwest/West/Northeast). We've seen in the past few elections largely regionally-driven polling errors. Polls badly underestimated Trump in WI, but only modestly in AZ and PA and not at all in GA. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 9, 2020