Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated No

Last Checked Nov. 19, 2020

Created

Mon Nov 09 17:55:07 +0000 2020

Likes

1,060

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We have years and years of well-calibrated forecasts. (If anything, underdogs have won a bit less than they're supposed to, although not to a degree that's statistically significant.) We know what we're doing with these probabilities. https://t.co/8oqu1OmvAz — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 9, 2020

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The reason Biden's win probability was ~90% is precisely because he could withstand a fairly large polling error when Clinton couldn't, which is exactly what happened. Indeed, our model assumes polls are fairly error-prone. https://t.co/F47OcVHqNK — PolitiTweet.org

I'm just not really sure Biden's knife-edge victory validates an ex ante 90% win probability. It's almost as if any… https://t.co/vC4Uz0wuYQ

Posted Nov. 9, 2020

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There is a LOT of work that goes into thinking about how to model out poll error and uncertainty. Thousands of hours of painstaking, detailed work. It's hard. Also a LOT of work that goes into how to describe it visually, and verbally, which is equally painstaking. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 9, 2020