Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 19, 2020

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Mon Nov 09 17:52:22 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The reason Biden's win probability was ~90% is precisely because he could withstand a fairly large polling error when Clinton couldn't, which is exactly what happened. Indeed, our model assumes polls are fairly error-prone. https://t.co/F47OcVHqNK — PolitiTweet.org

I'm just not really sure Biden's knife-edge victory validates an ex ante 90% win probability. It's almost as if any… https://t.co/vC4Uz0wuYQ

Posted Nov. 9, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I've promised myself not to do too much dunking but I can't believe how many dumb takes there was like this based on preliminary results. Especially because Biden always looked to be in pretty decent shape if you were actually following the data. So for posterity's sake. https://t.co/HmjnNJsd8T — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 9, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We have years and years of well-calibrated forecasts. (If anything, underdogs have won a bit less than they're supposed to, although not to a degree that's statistically significant.) We know what we're doing with these probabilities. https://t.co/8oqu1OmvAz — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 9, 2020