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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 19, 2020

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Mon Nov 09 18:03:37 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There is a LOT of work that goes into thinking about how to model out poll error and uncertainty. Thousands of hours of painstaking, detailed work. It's hard. Also a LOT of work that goes into how to describe it visually, and verbally, which is equally painstaking. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 9, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We have years and years of well-calibrated forecasts. (If anything, underdogs have won a bit less than they're supposed to, although not to a degree that's statistically significant.) We know what we're doing with these probabilities. https://t.co/8oqu1OmvAz — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 9, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So I'm admittedly kind of prickly about criticism after elections that both our model and our broader reporting handled quite robustly, which only happened because we put so much work into them. Especially given that the topline outcome + 48/50 states were "called" correctly. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 9, 2020