Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 31, 2021

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Mon Nov 02 16:54:18 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In other words, if you knew that Biden was +1 in GA, +2 in NC, +3 in AZ, only -1 in TX and +8 or +9 nationally, you'd probably guess that he had a slightly larger lead in Florida polls than he does. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Some debates on here about FL (the conventional wisdom is bearish on Biden relative to polls). One thing to keep in mind is Biden's actually underperforming there relative to other states. He's up 2 there when our model thinks he "should" be up 4 based on his numbers elsewhere. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Much to Fivey's chagrin—or perhaps delight—Biden keeps oscillating between like 89.9% ("favored") and 90.1% ("clearly favored") in our forecast with every random poll we add. (And boy have there been some random polls today.) https://t.co/ajG88SznSA https://t.co/FdOT1ODMe7 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2020 Hibernated