Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 31, 2021

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Mon Nov 02 13:05:00 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden got a tiny further boost this morning (from 89% to 90%*) from this plus some decent polling for him. But now there are no longer any further gains to be had for Biden from the mere passage of time. * Yes, just over the "clearly favored" line in our verbiage — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The factors (reducing the amount of uncertainty and reducing the weight assigned to the prior, which expected the race to tighten) had gradually been helping Biden. They're why his win % had been drifting upward even while the polls were basically flat or tightening by a hair. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Bottom line: our final forecast is likely to be very close to what you see now (i.e. 90/10 or thereabouts). Could it be 92/8 or 88/12? Sure. But there's so much polling in most of these states now that new polls aren't shifting things much. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2020 Hibernated