Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 31, 2021

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Mon Nov 02 13:03:02 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The factors (reducing the amount of uncertainty and reducing the weight assigned to the prior, which expected the race to tighten) had gradually been helping Biden. They're why his win % had been drifting upward even while the polls were basically flat or tightening by a hair. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2. One type of uncertainty—"drift", or how much polls change between the present day and the election—is also now gone. Of course, there's still the chance that polls could be *wrong*. But there's no longer time for polls to change (though a few more will straggle in today.) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden got a tiny further boost this morning (from 89% to 90%*) from this plus some decent polling for him. But now there are no longer any further gains to be had for Biden from the mere passage of time. * Yes, just over the "clearly favored" line in our verbiage — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2020 Hibernated