Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 31, 2021

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Mon Nov 02 12:57:23 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2. One type of uncertainty—"drift", or how much polls change between the present day and the election—is also now gone. Of course, there's still the chance that polls could be *wrong*. But there's no longer time for polls to change (though a few more will straggle in today.) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

1. The forecast is now totally polls-based; there's no longer any prior for economics/incumbency. The weight assigned to this prior had been declining anyway so that it was close to zero, but now it's actually zero. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The factors (reducing the amount of uncertainty and reducing the weight assigned to the prior, which expected the race to tighten) had gradually been helping Biden. They're why his win % had been drifting upward even while the polls were basically flat or tightening by a hair. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2020 Hibernated