Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 16, 2021

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Thu Oct 29 19:29:09 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@dandrezner @DanRosenheck @JamesSurowiecki Hard to think of a better contrarian indicator than what people overseas think is going to happen in a US election — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki So you have some pro-Trump traders thinking it's all coming down to Hunter Biden and shy Trump voters and they can't believe they can get 2:1 on him. The pro-Biden traders are meeker, meanwhile, and maybe more aware they don't have the experience to properly price the odds. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Since almost no people have the relevant expertise to build political forecasting models (it takes tons of work and even then is easy to get wrong), political betting markets are basically just a competition over what types of people suffer more from the Dunning–Kruger effect. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 29, 2020 Hibernated