Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 16, 2021

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Thu Oct 29 19:27:55 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki So you have some pro-Trump traders thinking it's all coming down to Hunter Biden and shy Trump voters and they can't believe they can get 2:1 on him. The pro-Biden traders are meeker, meanwhile, and maybe more aware they don't have the experience to properly price the odds. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki 1) It's not that much money 2) Almost no people have the relevant expertise and have invested the relevant time into election forecasting 3) Makeup of the trading pool may matter some, I'd guess traders are also not highly discerning about which news sources are reliable or not — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@dandrezner @DanRosenheck @JamesSurowiecki Hard to think of a better contrarian indicator than what people overseas think is going to happen in a US election — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 29, 2020 Hibernated