Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 16, 2021

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Thu Oct 29 19:50:44 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Since almost no people have the relevant expertise to build political forecasting models (it takes tons of work and even then is easy to get wrong), political betting markets are basically just a competition over what types of people suffer more from the Dunning–Kruger effect. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@dandrezner @DanRosenheck @JamesSurowiecki Hard to think of a better contrarian indicator than what people overseas think is going to happen in a US election — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But there is a professional class of tens of thousands of people who price equities for a living, and can therefore take advantage of naive traders, whereas there are very few professional election forecasters. — PolitiTweet.org

I don't think this explains the discrepancy between election betting markets and election models. Lots of stock-mar… https://t.co/6k2iRvFzRw

Posted Oct. 29, 2020 Hibernated