Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 8, 2021

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Mon Oct 26 20:22:43 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@WesPegden Yeah. One interesting wrinkle is that Biden is actually a favorite conditional on losing PA but winning MI, WI and MN, where his lead is larger. He'd have to make up for PA with FL, AZ or NC (or more exotically, GA or TX). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW, the current implementation of our model is sparing with how it uses national polls. You could argue for moving Biden's state polls upward slightly so that they better match the national polls. Our 2012 & 2016 models did that to some degree, but this year's does not really. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On average, Biden has gained 0.5 points in post-debate polls (median field date of Friday or later) vs. the previous editions of those same polls. However, he's gained 1.5 points if you exclude Rasmussen's national poll and Insider Advantage's PA poll. — PolitiTweet.org

Some polling sponsored by groups that are conservative (or are Rasmussen) have this race tightening... But I really… https://t.co/6B0V47BxHp

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated