Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 8, 2021

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Mon Oct 26 20:17:10 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW, the current implementation of our model is sparing with how it uses national polls. You could argue for moving Biden's state polls upward slightly so that they better match the national polls. Our 2012 & 2016 models did that to some degree, but this year's does not really. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Why this state/national poll gap exists is an interesting question. Also there have been points in the year where it seemed to run in the opposite direction, e.g. before the first debate, our model thought Biden led by ~8 points from state polls vs. a ~7 point national poll lead. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@WesPegden Yeah. One interesting wrinkle is that Biden is actually a favorite conditional on losing PA but winning MI, WI and MN, where his lead is larger. He'd have to make up for PA with FL, AZ or NC (or more exotically, GA or TX). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated