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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 8, 2021

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Mon Oct 26 20:57:01 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On average, Biden has gained 0.5 points in post-debate polls (median field date of Friday or later) vs. the previous editions of those same polls. However, he's gained 1.5 points if you exclude Rasmussen's national poll and Insider Advantage's PA poll. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Some polling sponsored by groups that are conservative (or are Rasmussen) have this race tightening... But I really… https://t.co/6B0V47BxHp

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@WesPegden Yeah. One interesting wrinkle is that Biden is actually a favorite conditional on losing PA but winning MI, WI and MN, where his lead is larger. He'd have to make up for PA with FL, AZ or NC (or more exotically, GA or TX). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's not great to reverse-cherry-pick by throwing out data that doesn't match the trend. On the other hand, there's this group of quasi-partisan pollsters that plainly behave like partisan polls even though they may or may not officially get classified that way by our model. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated